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Institutul Interconnection Consulting, din Viena, furnizeaza de aproape trei decenii servicii de cercetare, consultanta si analize sectoriale pentru diferite industrii, inclusiv pentru sectorul ferestrelor, unde urmareste evolutiile din aproximativ 50 de tari. Intr-un domeniu aflat sub presiunea simultana a costurilor energetice, a cadrului european privind performanta energetica a cladirilor si a programelor publice de renovare, valoarea analizei depaseste inventarierea volumelor si sta in identificarea mecanismului care muta atentia dinspre constructia noua spre modernizarea fondului construit existent. Romania ofera un exemplu concludent al acestei schimbari. Allison Carranza, analist de piata in cadrul Interconnection Consulting, explica principalele tendinte care modeleaza industria europeana de ferestre in perioada 2026 - 2030 si consecintele acestora pentru producatori, furnizori de sisteme si montatori.

 

- The European market is currently shaped by three forces acting at the same time: weak new construction, stronger renovation pressure, and a gradual shift toward higher-performance building envelopes. The market is no longer driven only by housing completions. In many countries, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, window demand is increasingly linked to replacement cycles, energy-efficiency upgrades and public funding schemes. This changes the logic of the market: volume growth becomes more dependent on renovation capacity, while value growth is increasingly influenced by product quality, glazing performance, material mix and installation standards.

 

- Renovation is increasingly becoming the dominant growth driver across Europe, although the pace of this transition varies significantly between countries. Romania illustrates this trend particularly well. Residential building completions continue to decline, with single-family completions expected to fall by almost 10% in 2025 and apartment completions by more than 13%. Despite this, the Romanian window market is still growing, supported by replacement demand and energy-efficiency upgrades. Our research indicates that renovation already accounts for more than 60% of total window demand in Romania and nearly three quarters of residential window demand. This is supported by dedicated programs such as ”Rabla pentru Termopane”, REPowerEU vouchers and condominium renovation schemes. Similar dynamics can be observed in several European markets where renovation is gradually decoupling window demand from the new construction cycle.

 

- The revised EPBD and the zero-emission building agenda will support demand for high-performance windows and glazing systems, but the impact will not be immediate or uniform. The regulation creates a clear long-term direction: buildings must become more energy-efficient, and the envelope will play a central role. However, the short-term market effect depends on national implementation, funding availability, administrative capacity and consumer affordability. In countries where renovation subsidies are available and easy to access, the impact can be significant. Where funding is fragmented or bureaucratic, the market response will be slower.

 

- Thermal performance remains the primary purchasing criterion, but the market is gradually moving toward more comprehensive performance requirements. Triple glazing, airtightness and solar-control solutions are gaining importance as energy costs remain a major concern for both homeowners and commercial building owners.

The results from Romanian Market analysis indicate a growing preference for high-performance PVC and aluminum systems, particularly within renovation projects. Triple glazing is steadily gaining market share, while standard double glazing is gradually losing importance in new construction. At the same time, larger glazed areas and lift-and-slide systems are becoming increasingly popular, creating additional demand for aluminum-based solutions. In the medium term, digital product passports, environmental product declarations and sustainability documentation will become more relevant, especially in public procurement and larger commercial projects.

 

- PVC remains the volume leader in many Central and Eastern European markets because it offers a strong combination of affordability and thermal performance. In Romania, PVC accounted for around 63.5% of window volume in 2025. However, aluminum is gaining importance, especially in non-residential applications, large glazed elements and higher-value residential projects. In Romania, metal windows represented around 27.9% of volume but more than 40% of market value, which shows their higher price positioning. Wood is losing share in volume terms, while hybrid systems remain relatively small but benefit from the broader trend toward premium and performance-oriented solutions.

 

- They are becoming more visible, but in most markets, they are not yet the primary purchasing driver. For private customers, price, energy savings, comfort and reliability still dominate. Circularity and embodied carbon are more relevant in public procurement, large developers’ ESG strategies and premium projects. However, the direction is clear: manufacturers will increasingly need to document recycled content, environmental performance and product lifecycle data. These criteria may not yet decide every purchase, but they are becoming part of market access, especially in institutional and non-residential projects.

 

The biggest challenge is not the lack of demand, but the ability to convert renovation needs into actual projects. Insufficient or complex funding schemes, weak consumer purchasing power, high financing costs and shortages of skilled installers continue to constrain market growth across Europe. In addition, the implementation of EU renovation policies varies significantly between countries. While material costs have largely stabilized since the inflation peak of 2022–2023, affordability remains a key concern. This is particularly visible in Central and Eastern Europe, where budget-oriented products still dominate demand. Romania is a good example: windows priced below approximately EUR 220 per unit account for around three quarters of total market volume, despite medium- and premium-priced segments growing faster.

Ultimately, accelerating renovation activity will depend on making energy-efficiency investments financially attractive, easy to access and simple to implement.

 

- Central and Eastern Europe will follow the renovation-driven trajectory, but with a different market structure. Affordability remains more important than in Western Europe, and PVC will therefore continue to play a central role. At the same time, the renovation need is very high, especially in older residential buildings and apartment blocks. Romania illustrates this well: residential renovation represented more than 70% of residential window demand in 2025, while residential new construction accounted for less than 30%. This means CEE markets can offer attractive renovation potential, but the product mix will remain more price-sensitive than in Western Europe.

 

- A realistic scenario is one of moderate but sustainable growth. We do not expect a return to the construction-driven boom cycles seen in some periods before 2022. Instead, growth will increasingly be supported by renovation activity, energy-efficiency investments and the modernization of existing building stock. Across Europe, we expect window demand to grow at an average rate of around 2–4% per year in volume terms, while market value is likely to expand by 4–6% annually, supported by inflation, product upgrading and a gradual shift toward higher-performance solutions. However, growth rates will vary considerably between countries depending on renovation funding, housing market conditions and the pace of regulatory implementation.

Overall, the European window industry is likely to become structurally healthier, with renovation providing a more stable demand base than new construction and premium products continuing to outperform the broader market.

 

- The next phase of the market will reward companies that can combine affordability, performance and reliability. Manufacturers should not only focus on premium innovation, but also on scalable solutions for mass renovation. System suppliers need to support partners with energy-performance documentation, installation efficiency and product ranges adapted to renovation. Installers will become a bottleneck and therefore a strategic part of the value chain. The winners will be companies that can make energy-efficient renovation simple, financially accessible and technically reliable. In the coming years, competitiveness will depend less on selling a window as a product and more on delivering a complete solution for building performance.